Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Oct 7, 2014)

There have been no reports released from the US then, which allowed traders to reduce some of their holdings. For today, there are still no major US reports lined up, with only the JOLTS job openings and consumer credit data due. The US dollar could take its cue from speeches by a couple of FOMC members, who could provide more clues on how the upcoming FOMC minutes might turn out and what the Fed has in mind in terms of monetary policy adjustments. 

EUR

The euro bounced strongly against the dollar in recent trading despite weak data from the euro zone. German factory orders saw a massive 5.7% decline, worse than the projected 2.4% drop. Euro zone retail PMI fell from 45.8 to 44.8, reflecting a sharper contraction in the industry. Sentix investor confidence slipped from -9.8 to -13.7, lower than the estimated -11.8 figure. For today, German industrial production data is up for release and a 1.4% decline is expected.

GBP

The pound made a small recovery yesterday, as traders booked profits off their dollar trades. Medium-tier data from the UK was better than expected, as the housing equity withdrawal report showed -10.8 billion GBP reading versus the projected -11.3 billion GBP figure while the previous quarter’s figure was upgraded. UK manufacturing production data is due today and a small 0.2% uptick is eyed. Also up for release are the BOE credit conditions survey and the industrial production report. 

CHF

The franc bounced back to action in yesterday’s sessions, recovering to the dollar but losing further ground to the euro. There have been no reports released from Switzerland then while today has the retail sales, CPI and foreign currency reserves on tap. Retail sales could pick up by an annualized 0.8% while the CPI might show a 0.2% monthly uptick in price levels. The foreign currency reserves report could indicate whether or not the SNB has room to intervene in the forex market to defend the franc peg. 

JPY

The BOJ is set to make its interest rate statement today and no actual policy changes are expected. However, any change in tone or rhetoric could spark huge yen moves as an inclination to ease again might lead to more losses. Bear in mind that data from Japan has been mostly disappointing lately, reminding policymakers that the country hasn’t fully recovered from the sales tax hike yet. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls had a chance to recover to the dollar recently, as profit-taking took place. Canada’s Ivey PMI came in better than expected at 58.6 versus the projected 53.4 reading and the previous 50.9 figure, reflecting a strong rebound in the manufacturing sector. The RBA is set to make its monetary policy statement today and might trigger a huge reaction from Aussie pairs if any changes are announced. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way