Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 29, 2013)

This reflects how consumers have been the backbone of U.S. economic growth, as spending comprises nearly 70% of the GDP. For today, the only event on the U.S. schedule is FOMC member Rosengren’s speech. Watch out for his remarks concerning the Fed’s plan to scale down asset purchases.

EUR

The euro was driven sharply lower in yesterday’s trading when the topic of negative deposit rates came up again. It didn’t help that German import prices fell more than expected, chalking up a 1.4% decline instead of the estimated 0.2% decline. For today, Germany will print its preliminary CPI and employment change report, and these should have a huge impact on euro trading since Germany is seen to be the economy responsible for most of the growth in the euro zone.

GBP

The pound gave way to U.S. dollar strength in yesterday’s trading as GBP/USD fell back to the 1.5050 minor psychological level. MPC member Bean is set to give a testimony today while the U.K. will print its CBI realized sales report. Downbeat remarks, combined with a weak sales figure, could drive the pound even lower. CBI realized sales are projected to improve from -1 to 4, which might provide support for GBP/USD.

CHF

Swiss data was mixed yesterday as the trade balance disappointed but the employment level report came in strong. The level was at 4.15 million for the first quarter of the year, higher than the 4.12 million figure posted for the last quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Swiss trade surplus narrowed from 1.89 billion CHF to 1.73 billion CHF instead of widening to 2.02 billion CHF. For today, the UBS consumption indicator showed an improvement from 1.24 to 1.46. No other reports are due from Switzerland for the rest of the trading day.

JPY

The Japanese yen lost ground to most of its counterparts in yesterday’s trading, despite the stronger than expected retail sales report. Consumer spending is down by only 0.1% on an annual basis instead of the estimated 0.4% drop. This was also an improvement over the previous 0.3% year-on-year decline. No other reports are due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The commodity currencies lost ground to the Greenback once more, as the U.S. printed strong economic data yesterday. AUD/USD has broken below the key .9600 support while USD/CAD bounced from 1.0350. NZD/USD remains perched above the .8000 mark, waiting for more catalysts. The BOC rate decision is scheduled in today’s New York session and this should spark some volatility for USD/CAD. Take note that this is Carney’s last rate statement as BOC head so no changes are expected.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way