Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 24, 2013)

Traders took profits off key support levels, such as 0.9600 on AUD/USD, which paved the way for a dollar selloff. In addition, the rally in U.S. equities has sparked a risk rally, which has benefitted the higher-yielding currencies. The U.S. initial jobless claims reading was at 340K, better than the estimated 350K reading and consistent with the recent improvements in the labor market. The flash manufacturing PMI and the new home sales also came in better than consensus. For today, the U.S. is set to print its durable goods orders data and possibly print a 1.5% rebound in its headline figure.

EUR               

Euro zone PMI figures came in mixed for April, although most still remained below 50.0 indicating industry contraction. The German and French services PMI both missed expectations while the manufacturing industries showed better than expected results. Overall, euro zone’s services PMI landed at 47.7 up from 46.9 while the manufacturing PMI rose from 46.7 to 47.8. German GDP and German GfK consumer sentiment data are set for release today.

GBP                                         

The British pound was able to stage a nice recovery against the U.S. dollar in yesterday’s trading as it bounced above the 1.5100 major psychological level. U.K. GDP came in line with consensus, with no revision to the 0.3% uptick in growth. For today, the BBA mortgage approvals report should set the tone for pound trading during the U.K. session. The report is expected to show an improvement from 31.2 to 32.8.

JPY                                    

The Japanese yen made a strong rally in yesterday’s trading after the Nikkei stock index slumped by 7.3%. This pushed USD/JPY to test the 101.00 major psychological support before rebounding up to 102.50. Analysts attribute the drop to a major correction in the markets and risk aversion, although the uptrend on USD/JPY remains intact. There are no major reports due from Japan today but Governor Kuroda is slated to deliver a speech within the trading day.

CHF                          

The Swissy had a choppy trading day yesterday as it retreated from its recent gains then made a strong rebound. There are no major reports due from Switzerland today so USD/CHF trading could depend mostly on U.S. data.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The commodity currencies staged a nice rebound against the dollar in yesterday’s trading, boosted in part by risk appetite. Chinese manufacturing PMI came in below consensus and below the 50.0 mark, which weighed on the Australian dollar during the Asian session, but the pair was able to bounce off the .9600 level. New Zealand printed a weaker than expected trade surplus while Canada’s economic schedule remains empty.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way