Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 21, 2013)

It seems as though market participants are waiting for further clues on the US economy and the Fed’s monetary policy before pushing the dollar any higher. The FOMC minutes release and Fed head Bernanke’s speech could set the tone for dollar trading this week, but these events are scheduled for tomorrow. For today, only a few speeches from some finance officials and Fed members are on tap. If these officials talk about the urgency of withdrawing monetary policy stimulus as early as June, the dollar could resume its recent rallies.

EUR

The euro has recovered some of its recent losses against the US dollar, as EUR/USD has pulled up to the 1.2900 major psychological level. European banks were on a holiday yesterday, which explains the careful trading of euro pairs, and we might see more of the same today. There are no major events on the euro zone calendar, as the only economic release is the German PPI figure.

GBP

Cable is fighting to stay above the 1.5250 minor psychological level as the pound managed to rebound against the dollar in the past few trading sessions.  UK CPI data are set for release today and this should show if the BOE has scope to loosen up monetary policy. Although the BOE isn’t looking to do so anytime soon, as the British economy has recently shown signs of life, weak inflation could still spur the central bank to pump up liquidity in the system. The annual inflation reading is projected to fall from 2.8% to 2.6% in April.

CHF

The Swiss franc has been holding its ground against the US dollar so far this week, as USD/CHF reached resistance near the .9700 major psychological level. There are no major catalysts on Switzerland’s schedule for today, which suggests that the pair could maintain its current levels as traders await for more signs from the markets.

JPY

The Japanese government recently upgraded its growth forecasts, citing a rebound in exports and domestic economic activity. This was enough to keep USD/JPY trading below the 103.00 major psychological resistance this week. Yen traders might be feeling a little more cautious today, as the BOJ is gearing up for its monetary policy decision in tomorrow’s Asian session.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

Commodity currencies are currently stalling at key inflection points, with USD/CAD finding resistance at 1.0300 and AUD/USD perched at the 0.9750 support area. NZD/USD seems to be breaking off its recent selloff as well, with the pair retesting the .8200 major psychological level. The RBA just released the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting wherein they decided to slash interest rates by 0.25%. However, the minutes didn’t provide any clues as to whether the central bank will ease again, which explains why AUD/USD is staging a relief rally after the release. BOC Governor Carney is set to give a speech in today’s US session and this could determine if USD/CAD makes a bounce and retests 1.0300.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way