Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 20, 2016)

Policymakers Fischer and Dudley acknowledged the green shoots in the economy and suggested that the next meeting could still have the possibility of a rate hike. Data from the US came in mixed, with initial jobless claims meeting expectations and the Philly Fed index slumping from -1.6 to -1.8 instead of improving to 3.2. 

EUR

The euro had a mixed performance as the lack of top-tier data left it sensitive to country-specific events. Only the German PPI and euro zone current account balance are up for release today. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.2% uptick in German producer prices and a wider current account surplus of 19.6 billion EUR from the earlier 19.0 billion EUR. 

GBP

The pound extended its gains thanks to stronger than expected UK retail sales. Consumer spending rose 1.3% in April versus expectations of a 0.6% rebound while the previous reading was revised to show a smaller decline of 0.5%. 

CHF

The franc continued to weaken against its forex peers as there were no major reports out of Switzerland. There are still no reports lined up from the Swiss economy today so a continuation of the current market sentiment could mean more losses for the franc. 

JPY

The yen lost ground to most of its peers when risk appetite improved. There were no major reports out of Japan yesterday, although data released earlier in the week came in mostly better than expected. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls continued to retreat despite the pickup in risk-taking, as the Aussie fell despite stronger than expected headline jobs data. Employment rose 10.8K versus the estimated 12.6K figure while the unemployment rate fell to 5.7% mostly due to a drop in labor force participation. Canadian inflation and consumer spending reports are due today. Headline CPI could rise 0.4% while core CPI is expected to post a 0.1% uptick. Headline retail sales could show a 0.7% drop while core retail sales could indicate a 0.4% decline.  

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way