Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 13, 2013)

Although an actual date hasn’t been specified, the fact that the Fed is considering tightening monetary policy renewed demand for the dollar, especially since other major economies are considering loosening monetary policy in order to devalue their currencies and retain competitiveness in global trade. US data set for release this week, including the retail sales figures due today, could reinforce dollar strength as strong data could push the Fed closer to exiting their easing program. Slight declines are expected for the April retail sales report, but an upside surprise could be likely as the jobs report for the same month has turned out well.

EUR                                                               

EUR/USD finally made a strong break below the 1.3000 major psychological level on Friday as the US Federal Reserve talked about their stimulus exit plan. Data from the euro zone has been disappointing as German trade balance missed expectations while Italy posted weaker than expected industrial production. No euro zone reports are due for today.

GBP                                                                        

GBP/USD suffered a strong selloff on Friday, although the pair’s uptrend still seems to be intact. The BOE is one of the more relatively upbeat central banks, providing a bit of support for the pound amidst the sudden surge in dollar buying. For the week, the UK claimant count change and the quarterly inflation report could dictate pound price action. BOE Governor King is also set to give a testimony later in the week, which could also affect GBP/USD’s movement.

CHF                                                                              

The Swiss franc got sold off against the US dollar and the euro on Friday. For today, the Swiss retail sales report could determine the franc’s movement as the report is slated to show a mere 1.0% annual uptick for March. This is much lower than the previously reported 2.4% increase for February. A weaker than expected figure could worsen the franc’s selloff while a strong figure could keep the losses at bay.

JPY                                                   

USD/JPY finally breached the 100.00 major psychological barrier when the US Fed unveiled its plans to exit its stimulus program. Japanese trade deficit has also come in weaker than expected, worsening the yen’s selloff. There are no major reports due from Japan today so watch out for any changes in market sentiment when trading yen pairs.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)                         

Although some commodity currencies enjoyed upbeat jobs reports, they were still sold off when the US Fed talked about their plans to exit quantitative easing.  AUD/USD broke below the key 1.0200 support while NZD/USD suffered sharp selloff to the .8300 area. Canadian hiring was weaker than expected in April, with only 12.5K in additional hiring, lower than the estimated 14.8K rise. For today, Australian data came in mixed with a strong 5.2% increase in home loans and a decline in NAB business confidence from 2 to -2.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way