Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 11, 2015)

However, the previous data was revised to show a mere 85K increase in hiring, down from the initially reported 126K gain. Average hourly earnings also fell short of expectations as it showed a 0.1% uptick instead of the projected 0.2% gain. Nonetheless, underlying labor indicators such as the participation rate and the underemployment rate reflected sustained improvements and was enough to reassure market watchers that the Fed’s rate hike bias will be maintained.

EUR

The euro continued to slide against the dollar but managed to sustain its climb against its other forex counterparts on Friday. Data from the euro zone came in mostly weaker than expected, as Germany’s industrial production report and trade balance both fell short of consensus. Italy’s industrial production report showed a 0.4% gain, stronger than the projected 0.3% gain, while the previous month’s reading was upgraded to 0.7%. Eurogroup meetings will take place today and positive expectations for the Greek debt talks could keep the shared currency afloat.

GBP

The pound paused from its post-election rally on Friday when traders closed off positions ahead of today’s BOE interest rate statement. No actual changes are expected but BOE Governor Carney is set to maintain his upbeat tone and talk of potential tightening moves. Halifax HPI from the UK last Friday posted strong gains of 1.6% versus the estimated 0.3% uptick.

CHF

The franc gave up its gains to the dollar after the release of the NFP report, as Swiss CPI fell short of expectations. The report indicated a 0.2% monthly decline in price levels versus estimates of a 0.1% uptick. There are no reports lined up from the Swiss economy today. 

JPY

The yen gave up ground to the dollar but managed to hold on to its wins against its other forex rivals, despite the lack of top-tier data from Japan on Friday. There are still no reports due from the Japanese economy today, leaving risk sentiment in the driver’s seat of yen pairs’ price action.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Thecomdolls were still in a weak spot last Friday, especially after the NFP release renewed demand for the dollar. In Canada, hiring data was weaker than expected as the economy lost 19.7K jobs in April versus expectations of a 4.5K decline while the jobless rate held steady at 6.8%. Over the weekend, China printed a weaker than expected CPI reading and announced a surprise interest rate cut – its third one so far this year. No major reports are due from the comdolls today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way