Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 5, 2018)

The UoM consumer sentiment index was downgraded from 99.9 to 99.7 but still slightly better than the 99.4 consensus. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI is due today and a fall from 59.9 to 58.9 is eyed, with traders likely to pay closer attention to the jobs component.

EUR

The euro struggled to hold its ground versus the yen but managed to advance against the dollar and commodity currencies. Data was mixed, with German retail sales down 0.7% versus the estimated 0.8% uptick and import prices beating expectations with a 0.5% gain. Final services PMI readings from its top economies, along with the region's retail sales figure, are lined up today.

GBP

The pound was the weakest of the bunch as resurfacing Brexit concerns weighed on business sentiment and the currency. This has been the case since the EU draft agreement was released, and PM May's speech hinted of more roadblocks ahead. The construction PMI beat expectations and the services sector will release their PMI today. Analysts expect a gain from 53.0 to 53.3.

CHF 

The franc took advantage of risk-off flows as it rallied across the board. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today, so market sentiment could push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen was also a big winner in recent trading sessions, owing to risk aversion and dollar weakness. There were no reports from Japan then and none are due today, which suggests that global bond yields and dollar demand could be a factor in yen price action.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were mostly weaker as risk aversion on trade war jitters took hold. Recall that Trump plans to impose higher tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to the US to protect producers, thereby limiting demand for these raw materials. Canada's GDP came in line with estimates of a meager 0.1% uptick. Australia's building approvals and company operating profits beat expectations.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way