Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 19, 2013)

This goes to show that the Fed is still on track to taper in September and the economy could draw support from the manufacturing sector. Initial jobless claims were also better than expected at 334K, lower than the estimated 344K reading. No reports are due from the US today but be wary of profit-taking prior to the weekend’s G20 meetings. 

EUR

Euro zone’s current account balance was weaker than expected, with the surplus shrinking from 23.8B to 19.6B. The ECB decided to ease collateral rules for acceptable asset-backed securities in hopes of spurring lending further. Medium-tier reports such as German PPI and Spanish housing price index are on tap from the euro zone today, both of which are unlikely to spur one-directional moves from euro pairs. 

GBP

UK retail sales came in line with consensus as the report showed a 0.2% uptick. This was weaker than the previous 2.1% increase, but the positive figure was still able to lift the pound. Only the public sector borrowing report is due from the UK today, and given the state of their finances, it would be helpful to see a decline in the public deficit. Otherwise, the pound might give up some of its gains.

CHF

Swiss trade balance was better than expected at a surplus of 2.73B CHF, higher than the estimated 2.41B CHF. The previous month’s figure was revised to 2.12B CHF though. No reports are due from Switzerland today so we might see sideways movement for franc pairs. 

JPY

The yen lost more ground to its counterparts in yesterday’s trading as Abe’s political party showed a strong lead in early polls. This means that Japan could be in for more aggressive structural reforms, which would include policies to keep the yen weak. All industries activity data is on tap for today and weak figures could lead to further yen weakness. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The commodity currencies struggled to hold on to their recent gains against the dollar, with the Canadian dollar showing some success. Canadian wholesale sales were much better than expected at 2.3%, higher than the estimated 0.4%, while the previous month figure enjoyed an upward revision. Meanwhile, Australian CB leading index was flat and the NAB quarterly business confidence report dipped from 2 to -1. Credit card spending in New Zealand rose by 5.4%, which helped lift the Kiwi.  Canadian CPI data are up for release in today’s US session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way