Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 08, 2017)

Data from the economy turned out in line with expectations, with the trade deficit narrowing on stronger imports and exports and the JOLTS job openings figure mostly unchanged. There are no major reports due from the US economy today. 

EUR

The euro managed to recover against some of its peers late in the day despite mixed data. German industrial production sank 3% versus the projected 0.2% uptick while the French trade balance showed a smaller than expected deficit. There are no major events in the region today. 

GBP

The pound staged a late rally in the US session when BOE official Forbes talked about the possibility of a rate hike. She highlighted the strong pickup in inflation as a potential reason to tighten but warned that Brexit uncertainties could still lead to downside risks. The UK Halifax HPI posted a 0.9% drop in house prices versus the estimated 0.2% increase. BOE official Cunliffe has a speech coming up. 

CHF

The franc was still mostly weaker against its peers as traders started looking to the tax reform referendum later this month. This could mean losses of revenue and jobs in the Swiss economy if passed so further economic weakness is eyed. SNB foreign currency reserves were mostly unchanged so there has been no evidence of forex intervention.  

JPY

The Japanese yen paused from its recent rallies as a bit of risk appetite returned to the US markets. Medium-tier reports such as the current account balance turned out weaker than expected and the Economy Watchers Sentiment index is still up for release. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls rallied and reversed even after New Zealand reported a 1.3% gain in dairy prices during its latest auction. The US EIA projected lower production this year but increased its output estimate for 2018 while reducing the demand forecast. Canada's reports were all in the red, as the trade balance printed a smaller surplus while the Ivey PMI showed a steeper drop than expected. The RBNZ decision is coming up next and no changes in interest rates are expected. 

By Kate Curtis from  Trader's Way