Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Apr 16, 2015)

The Empire State manufacturing index fell into negative territory, with the reading tumbling from 6.9 to -1.2 instead of improving to the projected 7.2 figure. Industrial production was also weaker than expected with a 0.6% drop instead of the estimated 0.3% dip while capacity utilization fell short of consensus. Initial jobless claims and building permits data are up for release today and more disappointments could lead to further dollar weakness.

EUR

The euro enjoyed some volatility in yesterday’s London trading session, as the ECB press conference contained mixed signals from Draghi. While the central bank head noted that green shoots are seen in the euro zone economy lately, he also reiterated that they are unlikely to exit from their ongoing QE program anytime soon. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound had a mixed performance, as it advanced to the dollar and euro but gave up ground to the franc and Aussie. There have been no reports released from the UK then, explaining the lack of direction from the currency. For today, there are still no reports due, leaving traders to price in expectations for tomorrow’s jobs release.

CHF

The franc surged against most of its major counterparts, as market sentiment seemed to turn a corner. There have been no reports released from Switzerland then and none are due today, indicating that the franc could continue to take its cue from the risk environment.

JPY

The yen was able to outpace the dollar but wound up giving up some of its gains when risk sentiment improved. There have been no major reports out of Japan yesterday and none are scheduled today, suggesting that the yen could still be driven by sentiment for the rest of the day.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie got a strong boost from stronger than expected jobs data released in today’s Asian trading session, with the economy adding 37.7K jobs and bringing the jobless rate down to 6.1%. Components of the report actually showed improvements in full-time hiring and labor force participation, lowering the odds of an RBA rate cut in the coming months. In New Zealand, the dairy auction revealed another fall in milk prices while the BOC didn’t make any surprise announcements in their latest policy statement.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way