AUDJPY Range Setup (Dec 4, 2014)

Price found support at the 100.00 major psychological mark and resistance at the 101.00 major psychological level.

The pair is on its way to test the top of the range for now, as data from Australia in today’s Asian trading session has been strong. The country showed a 0.4% increase in retail sales, higher than the projected 0.1% uptick, while the trade balance came in at a smaller deficit of 1.32 billion AUD compared to the estimated 1.85 billion AUD shortfall.

Stochastic is indicating a pickup in selling pressure though, and this might be enough to take AUDJPY back to the bottom of the range before the resistance is tested. If so, price could make another move back to the 100.00 support zone before rebounding.

A breakout in either direction is still possible, depending on how risk sentiment fares for the day. The path of least resistance is still to the upside, as the BOJ is biased towards further easing and the Japanese economy is much weaker compared to Australia.

If price makes a move past the 101.00 resistance, it could head up by an additional 100 pips, which is the same height as the rectangle chart pattern. Similarly, a downside break below 100.00 support could lead to 100 pips in losses.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way