AUDJPY Retracement Setup (July 13, 2016)

Price appears to have hit a ceiling at the 80.00 major psychological level and could make a pullback to the Fib levels on the 1-hour time frame.

In particular, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level could serve as strong support. This lines up with a former resistance level near the 77.00 major psychological mark and also the dynamic inflection points at the moving averages. 

The 100 SMA is crossing above the 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. Stochastic is still on the move down for now so sellers are in control of price action, with the rally set to resume once the oscillator makes it to the oversold region and turns higher.

Event risks for this setup include the Chinese trade balance since the level of imports and exports could be reflective of demand for Australia's raw material commodity shipments to the country. Later on this week, China is set to report its GDP, retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment. Stronger than expected results could allow the Aussie to regain ground.

Also due this week is the Australian jobs report which might show a 10.1K increase in hiring for June. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 5.7% to 5.8% and weak data could spur further Aussie weakness.

Speculations of additional easing from the BOJ spurred by PM Abe's orders to come up with a new economic stimulus plan earlier this week could keep the yen weak against its forex counterparts. So far not much details have been shared yet and yen traders are on their toes for any major announcements in the next few days.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way