Forex Major Currencies Outlook (September 27, 2013)

The US GDP reading was held steady at 2.5% for the second quarter instead of being upgraded to the estimated 2.7% reading. Pending home sales fell short of expectations as it printed a 1.6% decline instead of the estimated 0.9% downtick. For today, consumer data such as the core PCE price index, personal spending and income, and preliminary UoM consumer sentiment data are up for release. Weak reports could reinforce the dollar selloff while strong data could provide support for the currency. Take note that some Fed officials are set to give speeches today and their remarks could be taken as clues on the Fed’s monetary policy plans. 

EUR

The euro was unable to hold on to its recent gains when medium-tier data from the euro zone printed weak results. Italian retail sales dropped by 0.3% instead of rising by 0.3% while private loans in the region fell by 2.0%. Medium-tier reports from Germany and France are lined up for today, and another set of weak figures could push the euro lower. German CPI is slated to print a flat reading while French consumer spending could show a 0.1% uptick. ECB head Draghi has a speech scheduled today and he could spark additional volatility for euro pairs. 

GBP

The pound was one of the weaker currencies in yesterday’s trading, thanks to downbeat data from the UK. The GDP reading held steady at 0.7% for the second quarter while the first quarter report suffered a small downward revision. The current account balance missed expectations and printed a larger than expected deficit. UK Nationwide HPI is up for release today and a 0.5% uptick in house prices is projected. 

CHF
The franc stayed in consolidation against the dollar at the .9100 major psychological level yesterday. The lack of data from Switzerland kept the pair in a sideways path but today’s KOF economic barometer release could spark a breakout. The figure is expected to rise from 1.36 to 1.46 in the current month, possibly allowing USD/CHF to tread lower. 

JPY

The yen sold off against most of its counterparts, as Japan’s inflation reports came in mixed. National core CPI is up by 0.8%, higher than the estimated 0.7% reading, while the Tokyo core CPI fell short of the projected 0.3% figure and showed a mere 0.2% uptick. No other reports are due from Japan today so stay tuned for updates on the government’s plants to offset the sales tax increase to figure out where yen pairs could trade. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were unable to keep climbing yesterday, as weak US data weighed on overall risk sentiment. There were no major releases from Australia, Canada, or New Zealand recently, leaving the comdoll pairs at the mercy of sentiment. For today, their economic schedules are empty once again so AUD/USD, USD/CAD, and NZD/USD might take their cues from U.S. data. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way