Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 25, 2014)

The US currency appears to be acting as a counter currency for the time being, as risk sentiment also seems to be dictating price action. Data from the US was weaker than expected, as the flash services PMI fell from 57.1 to 56.3 instead of improving to the estimated 57.3 reading. For today, the US preliminary GDP and CB consumer confidence data are due. The GDP reading could be revised down from the initially reported 3.5% to 3.3% while the consumer confidence report might show an improvement from 94.5 to 95.9.

EUR

The euro recovered from its recent selloff, as traders probably booked profits off recent lows. Apart from that, the German Ifo business climate reading was stronger than expected, as it improved from 103.2 to 104.7 instead of falling to the estimated 103.0 reading. German final GDP and Italian retail sales data are up for release today, both of which aren’t expected to have a huge impact on euro price action.

GBP

The pound spent most of the trading day in consolidation, as traders are waiting for more clues from the UK economy. The BOE inflation report hearings are scheduled today and Carney might be set to explain why price pressures are weak and how he thinks it might fare moving forward. UK BBA mortgage approvals are also up for release and a decline from 39.3K to 38.5K is eyed.

CHF

The franc advanced to the dollar but stayed stuck in consolidation to the euro in recent trading sessions, as there have been no major reports out of Switzerland. There are still no reports lined up from the country today, leaving the franc at the mercy of risk sentiment.

JPY

The yen resumed its selloff mode today as Japanese traders returned from a holiday. The BOJ just released the minutes of their latest policy meeting, which indicated that some members are worried that the latest round of easing might not have such a strong effect on the economy as it did in the past. BOJ Governor Kuroda also gave a testimony in the early Asian session but his speech didn’t contain any surprises.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie and Kiwi suffered another round of selling in recent trading as China’s CB leading index showed a slight decline from 1.0% to 0.9% while New Zealand’s inflation expectations figure dipped from 2.2% to 2.1%. The Canadian dollar is still strong though, as the country is set to print its retail sales reports later on. Analysts expect to see strong figures, with the headline figure likely to rebound by 0.6% and the core figure to show a 0.4% uptick. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way