Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 17, 2014)

Consumer spending picked up by 0.3%, as shown by the headline and core retail sales figures, while consumer confidence improved from 86.9 to 89.4. This sets the tone for stronger overall growth in the US, which could keep the Fed on track to taper sometime next year. For today, only the industrial production and capacity utilization reports are due.

EUR

The euro staged a strong recovery towards the end of the trading week, as the region managed to avoid posting a negative growth figure. Germany showed a 0.1% expansion while France chalked up stronger than expected 0.3% GDP growth, allowing the euro zone to post a 0.2% GDP reading for Q3. The final CPI also came in line with expectations at 0.4% instead of reflecting weaker inflationary pressures. Italian and euro zone trade balance are up for release today, along with a speech by ECB Governor Draghi.

GBP

 The pound took a break from the recent selloff and made a small pullback to the dollar while consolidating to the yen. UK construction output was weaker than expected at 1.8% versus the estimated 3.7% increase for the third quarter. Earlier today, the UK Rightmove HPI indicated a 1.7% decline, weaker compared to the previous 2.6% gain. No other reports are up for release from the UK today.

CHF

 The franc continued its advance against the dollar and the euro on Friday, still supported by hopes of a gold referendum and lower odds of SNB intervention. There were no reports released from Switzerland then, as the franc also drew support from the fact that the euro zone economy didn’t contract recently. For today, there are no reports due from the Swiss economy.

JPY

The yen gained ground during the release of the latest GDP report from Japan, as the economy fell back in recession, which lowers the odds of another sales tax hike next year. The economy contracted by 0.4% for Q3 while the previous quarter’s reading was downgraded from -1.7% to -1.8%. There are no other reports due from Japan today, leaving traders to price in expectations for Prime Minister Abe’s announcement regarding a snap election and delaying the tax hike.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

 The comdolls regained ground on risk appetite, as the Loonie got an additional boost from stronger than expected manufacturing sales data. The report marked a 2.1% gain versus the estimated 1.3% increase. There are no major reports due from the comdoll economies today, leaving risk sentiment at the driver’s seat of price action.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way