Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 25, 2017)

Although majority of members confirmed that a rate hike is appropriate soon, they also cited that it would be prudent to wait for more data to see if the slowdown in Q1 was really transitory. Apart from that, the discussions focused on balance sheet rebalancing, which might lessen the need for additional tightening moves down the line. US existing home sales came in below expectations at 5.57 million. Initial jobless claims, goods trade balance, and preliminary wholesale inventories are due today.

EUR

The euro recovered to the dollar but was stuck in consolidation against the commodity currencies. Data came in stronger than expected once more as the German GfK consumer climate index rose from 10.2 to 10.4 instead of holding steady. French and German banks are closed for the holiday today so liquidity could be lower than usual during the London session.

GBP

The pound was still in a weak spot against most of its peers as the terror threat in the UK weighed heavily on investor sentiment. There were no reports out of the UK then while today has the second estimate GDP reading, preliminary business investment data, and the BBA mortgage approvals. No revisions are expected for the growth figure but an upgrade could yield some gains for the British currency.

CHF

The franc had a mixed performance as it mostly reacted to currency-specific events. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday and none are due today as Swiss banks are closed for the holiday, leaving market sentiment as the likely driver of price action for franc pairs.

JPY

The yen is also in a weak spot as risk appetite appears to have improved. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so the same market factors could stay in play. National and Tokyo core CPI readings are due in the next Asian session.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was one of the top performers thanks to a more optimistic BOC statement. The central bank focused on the improvements in hiring and consumer spending, confirming that their monetary policy stance is still appropriate. Moody's downgraded China's outlook but the Aussie seems unnerved as it is currently taking advantage of gold rallies. Crude oil stockpiles fell by 4.4 million barrels, according to the EIA report, and the focus is now on the OPEC meeting.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way