Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 18, 2015)

Data from the US economy came in weaker than expected, dashing hopes that the Fed might be able to hike interest rates sometime this year. Industrial production slipped by 0.3% instead of showing the estimated 0.1% uptick while the Empire State manufacturing index landed at 3.1, short of the projected improvement to 5.1. The preliminary consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan was also notably weaker, as the reading slipped from 95.9 to 88.6. There are no major reports due from the US today but a speech by FOMC member Evans is lined up.

EUR

The euro managed to advance against most of its forex rivals even though there were no major reports out of the region then. Renewed optimism surrounding Greece’s ability to make its latest set of debt repayments continued to support the shared currency but it remains to be seen whether this sentiment might last or not. Only a couple of minor reports are due from the euro zone today, as the euro might carry on with its ascent.

GBP

The pound was able to hold on to its recent gains and go for more, as the UK continued to show economic progress. Construction output picked up by 3.9% in March, slightly short of the estimated 4.1% rebound, while the CB leading index showed a 0.2% uptick. Earlier today, the Rightmove HPI showed a 0.1% decline, erasing part of the 1.6% gain seen last time. No other reports are due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc popped lower after the Swiss PPI release but managed to recover quickly, as the currency was lifted by optimism in the euro zone. Producer prices slipped 2.1% in April, worse than the projected 0.1% dip. The Swiss retail sales report is up for release today and a smaller 2.0% annualized decline is expected, compared to the previous 2.7% tumble.

JPY

The yen had a mixed performance, as it gained ground to the comdolls but was weaker against the euro and the pound. There have been no major reports released from Japan last Friday, leaving the yen at the mercy of risk sentiment. Earlier today, Japan reported a 2.9% jump in core machinery orders, stronger than the projected 1.7% rebound.  The revised industrial production report and the tertiary industry activity data are due later today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were slightly weaker at the end of the trading week, as bleak data and downbeat central bank biases weighed on the currencies. However, Canada managed to print stronger than expected data during the US session and allowed the Loonie to regain some ground. Manufacturing sales jumped 2.9% in March while foreign securities purchases was significantly higher than expected at 22.47 billion CAD. Canadian banks are closed for the holiday today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way