Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 01, 2017)

The economy grew by 0.7% in Q1, lower than the projected 1.3% reading and the earlier 2.1% growth figure. However, underlying data such as the GDP price index and employment cost index turned out stronger than expected while the Chicago PMI also beat expectations. Core PCE price index and ISM manufacturing PMI, along with personal income and spending data, are due today but traders could pay more attention to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's speech.

EUR

The euro held on to most of its recent gains as flash CPI readings from the region churned out upbeat results. The headline estimate rose from 1.5% to 1.9%, outpacing the 1.8% consensus, while the core reading climbed from an upgraded 0.3% reading to 0.8%. Medium-tier data from Germany and France fell short of estimates but Spain's flash GDP reading was stronger than expected at 0.8%. Euro zone banks are closed for the Labor Day holiday today.

GBP

The pound was also able to stay afloat even after reports confirming that EU leaders agreed to take a tough stance on Brexit. UK preliminary GDP also came short of consensus with a 0.3% growth figure versus the projected 0.4% expansion. UK banks are also closed for the holiday today.

CHF

The franc was mostly weaker against its European counterparts but managed to advance on risk aversion. The Swiss KOF economic barometer reading fell from 107.2 to 106.0 instead of improving to the projected 107.7 reading. Swiss banks are closed for the holiday today but retail sales data is due and a 0.5% year-over-year uptick is eyed.

JPY

The yen regained some ground against its counterparts as Japanese data turned out mostly stronger than expected on Friday. Inflation reports were in line with estimates while retail sales and the jobless rate turned out better than expected. Household spending and preliminary industrial production fell short. There are no major reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie was off to a weak start as Chinese PMI readings printed over the weekend were below expectations. The manufacturing PMI dipped from 51.8 to 51.2 versus the projected fall to 51.7, reflecting a much slower pace of industry expansion than expected, while the non-manufacturing reading dropped from 55.1 to 54.0. In Canada, the monthly GDP reading showed a flat figure instead of the projected 0.1% uptick. No other top-tier reports are lined up for today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way