Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 3, 2015)

Data from the US economy was actually weaker than expected, with the ISM manufacturing PMI falling from 53.5 to 52.9, reflecting a slower expansion in the industry. Construction spending marked a 1.1% tumble versus the projected 0.4% uptick while manufacturing prices stayed flat. No major reports are due from the US economy today, as risk sentiment might drive dollar price action.

EUR

The euro consolidated to the dollar but made a small recovery to its other counterparts as the region’s flash headline CPI came in better than expected with a 0.3% decline versus the projected 0.6% drop. The core CPI came in line with expectations of a 0.6% gain. Meanwhile, the euro zone jobless rate improved to 11.2% from a positively revised 11.3% reading. German retail sales and Spanish unemployment change are lined up from the euro zone today, with strong data likely to support the shared currency.

GBP

The pound was barely able to rally against the dollar but posted a few gains to its other rivals yesterday, as UK manufacturing PMI beat expectations. The figure climbed from 53.1 to 54.1, indicating a pickup in industry expansion. Construction PMI and a speech from BOE Governor Carney are lined up for today, adding to potential volatility among pound pairs later on.

CHF

The franc carried on with its steady decline, as the Swiss manufacturing PMI fell from 48.2 to 47.3, reflecting a larger contraction in the industry. Swiss GDP is up for release today and a weaker growth figure of 0.3% compared to the previous 0.6% expansion is expected. Lower than expected GDP figures could mean more losses for the franc.

JPY

The yen struggled to stay afloat in recent trading, as traders refrained from buying up the lower-yielding currency even in a risk off environment. Data from Japan was weaker than expected, with capital spending falling from 5.5% to 2.8% in Q4 2014. Earlier today though, Japan reported a higher than expected average cash earnings figure of 1.3% versus the projected 0.6% reading.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were in a weak spot recently, as traders digested the recent PBOC rate cut’s effect on global growth and risk appetite. In Australia, company operating profits marked a 0.2% decline for the previous quarter versus the projected 0.7% increase. Earlier today though, building approvals and the current account showed stronger than expected results. Later on, the New Zealand dairy auction will take place and show if prices posted another increase while the Canadian GDP is also up for release.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way