Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 4, 2013)

EUR/USD rebounded back to the 1.3000 major psychological level while USD/JPY slipped back below the 100.00 mark. US ISM non-manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected, showing only a 52.2 reading instead of the estimated improvement from 53.7 to 54.3. There are no reports due from the US today.

EUR

EUR/USD suffered a heavy selloff at the start of the trading day as brewing political trouble in Portugal weighed on the country’s bailout prospects and caused a spike in bond yields. However, EUR/USD managed to pull up to the 1.3000 handle towards the end of the day as traders closed their positions around the fresh lows. Euro zone data was mixed as retail sales showed a better than expected 1.0% increase while Italian PMI fell short of expectations. The ECB rate decision is on tap for today and, even though no monetary policy changes are expected, Draghi could emphasize their readiness to add stimulus if necessary.

GBP

The pound managed to end the day higher than the dollar and the euro, as the UK printed better than expected services PMI. The reading jumped from 54.9 to 56.9 instead of dipping to 54.6. The BOE rate decision is scheduled today and it will be Mark Carney’s first statement as BOE Governor. Market participants are interested in how the new Governor will approach monetary policy so this event could trigger a large reaction among pound pairs.

CHF

The franc managed to recoup some of its recent losses to the dollar, as USD/CHF slipped back below the .9500 handle. There were no reports released from Switzerland then, leaving USD/CHF sensitive to US data. There are no reports due from Switzerland again today and none are due from the US.

JPY

The yen regained ground against its major counterparts, as the Labor Ministry reported that there was no change in Japan’s average cash earnings. On top of that, the BOJ noted that the Japanese economy is starting to pick up pace. There are no other reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The comdolls had a weak start, as AUD sold off and fell below the .9100 handle. Australia printed weaker than expected building permits and retail sales, although its trade balance did come in strong. Canada’s trade balance also came in better than expected, allowing USD/CAD to hold on to its recent levels. There were no reports from New Zealand, leaving NZD/USD in consolidation.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way