Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 31, 2013)

Data from the US hasn’t been exactly very strong, as the CB consumer confidence figure actually came in weaker than expected. Instead of dipping from 81.4 to just 81.1, the index fell to 80.3. The advanced GDP is up for release today and 1.1% growth is eyed for the second quarter of the year, lower than the previous quarter’s 1.8% reading. The FOMC statement is also scheduled during the later part of the US session, and the Fed might be able to set the record straight regarding their asset purchases.

EUR

Although euro zone figures came in mostly better than expected yesterday, the euro was no match to dollar strength as traders liquidated most of their positions ahead of the top-tier US data today. German GfK consumer climate improved from 6.8 to 7.0 while Spanish GDP came in line with consensus at -0.1%. German retail sales and jobs data are due today and this might have an impact on EUR/USD, but traders might stand pat ahead of the US events.

GBP

The pound lost ground to the dollar in yesterday’s trading, even if the GfK consumer confidence figure for the UK was stronger than estimated. The reading improved from -21 to -16, outpacing the consensus at -19. There are no major reports on tap from the UK today, leaving traders to take their cues from the major events in the US.

CHF

The lack of major reports from Switzerland left the franc powerless against the dollar in yesterday’s trading. Today, Switzerland will release its UBS consumption indicator and KOF economic barometer. Both of these reports could support the franc during the London session if they come in stronger than expected or show significant improvements.

JPY

The yen edged higher against its counterparts and managed to hold on to its current levels to the dollar. Data from Japan was mixed, as the jobs report was strong but spending and production disappointed, leaving the yen mostly directionless. The average cash earnings and housing starts data are due from Japan today, although both reports aren’t likely to cause huge waves for yen pairs.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The comdoll gang was weighed down by the dollar in yesterday’s trading, as some traders took profits ahead of today’s key events. Weak building approvals in Australia and New Zealand dragged AUD/USD and NZD/USD lower, but the Loonie managed to stay more resilient as inflation reports from Canada came in strong. New Zealand reported an improvement in ANZ business confidence while Australia released an upbeat private sector credit data, which is providing support for their currencies at the moment.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way