Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jan 03, 2018)

Equities recorded a strong performance in anticipation of tax reform implementation, but the currency was more sensitive to policy biases and a fresh round of jitters from North Korea. The ISM manufacturing PMI is due today and analysts are expecting to see a dip from 58.2 to 58.1 to reflect a slower pace of expansion. Also due today are the FOMC meeting minutes for December, which might contain more insight on how the central bank could adjust policy in the year ahead. 

EUR 

The euro was able to sustain its lead on the heels of upbeat remarks from ECB member Coeure. Data was actually mostly weaker than expected as services PMI from the top economies fell short. Today has the Spanish unemployment change due and a 58.7K drop in joblessness is eyed. Germany is also set to print its jobs data and probably show a 13K decrease in unemployment. 

GBP 

The pound was also one of the best performers of the day, despite weaker than expected UK manufacturing PMI. The reading fell from 58.2 to 56.3 versus the estimated dip to 58.0 but it was the upbeat assessment of Markit that saved the day. Construction PMI is due today and a fall from 53.1 to 52.8 is expected. 

CHF 

The franc had a mixed run as it mostly reacted to currency-specific factors. Swiss banks were still closed for the holiday yesterday and will reopen today. The manufacturing PMI is due and a fall from 65.1 to 64.6 is eyed, reflecting a slower pace of industry expansion.  

JPY 

The yen took advantage of dollar weakness to chalk up a few more gains across the board. Traders also seem to be warming up to the idea that the BOJ might taper its QQE program later this year as well. Japanese banks are still closed for the holiday so there are no releases scheduled. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) 

It was a rally and reverse day for the comdolls as they got hit by risk aversion in the earlier sessions then staged a bit of a rebound during the US hours. New Zealand reported a 2.2% rebound in dairy prices during the latest GDT auction while Canada had a stronger manufacturing PMI of 54.7 from the earlier 54.4 figure. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI also came in better than expected. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way