Forex Major Currencies Outlook (December 3, 2013)

Data from the US was better than expected, as the ISM manufacturing PMI improved from 54.3 to 54.7 instead of declining to the estimate at 55.2. For today, only a couple of medium-tier reports are up for release from the US economy and these aren’t likely to cause a huge impact on dollar movement. 

EUR

The euro lost ground to the dollar yesterday, as EUR/USD let go of the 1.3600 handle and dipped to the 1.3500 area. Data from the euro zone was mixed, as the Spanish manufacturing PMI disappointed and printed a contraction while the Italian PMI came in line with expectations at 51.4. Spanish unemployment change data is up for release today and a weak figure might push the euro lower against its counterparts while a good reading could pave the way for a recovery. 

GBP

The pound was unable to sustain its rallies against the dollar yesterday but it did take advantage of yen weakness. UK manufacturing PMI was much stronger than expected, as the actual figure climbed to 58.4 while the previous figure was revised up from 56.0 to 56.5. Construction PMI is up for release today and it is expected to show a dip from 59.4 to 59.3 but a strong climb might push the pound higher against its counterparts again. 

CHF

 The franc tried to edge higher yesterday but let go of some of its gains to the dollar when US data came in strong. Swiss SVME PMI was much better than expected at 56.5 versus the estimate at 55.1 and the previous 54.2 reading. There are no reports due from Switzerland today so we might see a bit of consolidation from franc pairs. 

JPY

The yen lost ground to its counterparts once more although the Nikkei posted a loss for the day. Japanese capital spending was weaker than expected and BOJ Kuroda stressed the central bank’s willingness to add stimulus if needed, leading to another massive yen selloff. Japanese average cash earnings came in line with consensus at 0.1% earlier today but wasn’t enough to trigger sharp moves from yen pairs yet. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to breathe a sigh of relief yesterday when data from China was able to provide support for the Aussie and Kiwi. At the same time, actual data from Australia and New Zealand surprised to the upside. Earlier today, Australian retail sales came in stronger than expected at 0.5% yet the RBA said that the Aussie is still overvalued, eventually leading to Aussie weakness. No other reports are due from these economies for the rest of the day’s trading sessions. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way