Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 02, 2017)

The core PCE price index posted another 0.1% as expected while personal spending ticked up by 0.1% as well, even while personal income was flat. The ISM manufacturing PMI slipped from 57.8 to 56.3, slightly lower than the 56.4 estimate. The ADP report is due next and a 187K gain in hiring is eyed. 

EUR 

The euro was off to a good start as European stocks rallied on the region's flash GDP report. However, the shared currency retreated when the German bond auction resulted to lower yields. The German unemployment change report showed a larger 9K drop in joblessness while the region's GDP showed a 0.6% expansion. The Spanish unemployment change report is due next. 

GBP 

The pound was able to hold its ground thanks to upbeat manufacturing PMI. The reading recovered from 54.2 to 55.1, outpacing the consensus at 54.4. The construction PMI is due next and a dip from 54.8 to 54.3 is eyed but another stronger than expected read could mean more pound gains ahead of the BOE decision later this week. 

CHF 

The franc was still in a weak spot but managed to recoup its losses when risk aversion returned. There were no major reports out of the Swiss economy then while today has retail sales, manufacturing PMI, and the SECO consumer climate index. Retail sales are expected to recover by 1.3% while the manufacturing PMI could fall from 60.1 to 58.9. The SECO index is projected to climb from -8 to -3. 

JPY 

The yen had a mixed performance as it reacted mostly to currency-specific events rather than establishing its own direction. The BOJ core CPI held steady at 0.3% instead of dipping to the projected 0.2% figure and the consumer confidence index is due today. Analysts are expecting to seen an improvement from 43.3 to 43.5. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) 

The comdolls returned some of their gains as crude oil and dairy prices dipped. The API reported a surprise build in stockpiles while the GDT auction showed a 1.6% drop in dairy prices. New Zealand also reported a surprise 0.2% drop in hiring for Q2 but the unemployment rate improved from 4.9% to 4.8%. The RBA kept rates unchanged at 1.50% as expected while issuing a relatively neutral statement. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way