Forex Major Currencies Outlook (April 1, 2014)

USD/JPY carried on with its rally past the 103.00 handle while GBP/USD broke past the 1.6650 minor psychological resistance. Fed Chairperson Yellen’s speech caused volatility among dollar pairs as she spoke of the labor market needing support, which is a more dovish statement compared to her remarks during the latest FOMC decision. Up ahead, ISM manufacturing PMI is due and analysts expect to see an improvement from 53.2 to 54.2.

EUR

The euro made a small recovery to the dollar in recent trading even though the CPI reading for the euro zone came in weaker than expected at 0.5%. This prompted calls for further easing from the ECB in their upcoming rate decision, but ECB member Nowotny mentioned that the euro zone recession might be over and sparked a rally for the shared currency. Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMI, along with the German unemployment change data, is due today and should provide a bit more movement for euro pairs.

GBP

The pound extended its rally against the dollar in yesterday’s trading sessions when BOE Governor Carney spoke of higher rates for the UK economy. UK manufacturing PMI is up for release today and this might determine whether the pound can hold on to its recent gains or not. The figure is slated to dip from 56.9 to 56.7 for March, which might lead to a bit of a pullback for GBP/USD if the actual figure comes in as expected. A weaker than expected reading could trigger a quick selloff.

CHF
The franc regained ground to the dollar, with USD/CHF closing below the doji on its daily time frame and confirming a potential selloff. Data from Switzerland was actually weaker than expected as the KOF economic barometer showed a decline from 2.03 to 1.99 instead of improving to 2.08. Swiss SVME PMI is up for release today and a small improvement from 57.6 to 57.9 is projected, which might help USD/CHF extend its drop.

JPY

The yen lost ground to most of its major counterparts recently when Japan printed a weaker than expected Tankan index. The figure rose from 16 to 17, short of the estimate at 19, while the non-manufacturing component improved from 20 to 24 as expected. Average cash earnings stayed flat instead of dipping by the estimated 0.1%, allowing the yen to hold steady in the early Asian session. No other reports are due from Japan for the rest of the trading day.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie and the Kiwi resumed their rallies to the dollar while the Loonie lagged behind, although Canadian GDP came in stronger than expected at a monthly growth of 0.5%. Earlier today, Chinese official manufacturing PMI improved from 50.2 to 50.3 instead of falling to the projected 50.1 reading. However, the HSBC final manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 48.0. The RBA is set to announce its interest rate decision today and possibly spark more volatility for AUD/USD. No reports are due from Canada and New Zealand.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way