Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 7, 2014)

US data came in line with expectations as the trade balance showed a 40.4 billion USD deficit, smaller than the previous 41.9 billion USD shortfall. US preliminary non-farm productivity and labor costs data are up for release today but the bigger mover could be Fed Chairperson Yellen’s speech in Congress. Bear in mind that there was no press conference following the relatively hawkish FOMC statement last week and that this could be the chance to hear more remarks from the Fed head.

EUR

The euro continued to climb to the dollar and the yen in recent trading sessions, as data from the euro zone reflected a bit of stability. Spanish unemployment change and services PMI showed strong results, along with a better than expected euro zone retail sales reading. Italian services PMI merely came in line with expectations. German factory orders and French industrial production data are due today but this might not have such an impact on euro movement, as traders try to position ahead of tomorrow’s ECB rate statement.

GBP

The pound jumped to new highs against the dollar when the UK services PMI printed stronger than expected results. The index jumped from 57.6 to 58.7, outpacing the consensus at 57.9. There are no major reports lined up from the UK today but the positive sentiment could keep the pound supported ahead of the BOE rate statement tomorrow.

CHF

The franc advanced to the dollar after a brief period of USD/CHF consolidation, as market sentiment improved in recent trading. Swiss employment level data and foreign currency reserves are up for release today, which might spark a bit of franc weakness if the data comes up short of expectations.

JPY

The Japanese yen fell victim to risk appetite in recent trading but managed to advance against the US dollar. There were no reports released from Japan yesterday since it was still a banking holiday in the country but traders are ready to return to their trading desks today. The BOJ monetary policy meeting minutes were released and revealed a relatively optimistic outlook for the Japanese economy, despite the sales tax hike.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls raked in the gains when risk appetite improved in recent trading sessions, pushing NZD/USD past the .8700 mark and USD/CAD to test its previous lows. Data from Canada was actually weaker than expected, as the Ivey PMI and trade balance both missed expectations. New Zealand’s quarterly jobs report was mixed, as the employment change reading ticked up by a stronger than expected 0.6% but the jobless rate held steady at 6.0%. Australia’s retail sales was weaker than expected with a mere 0.1% uptick. Canadian building permits are up for release later on.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way