Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 17, 2017)

Economic data has been mixed, with building permits and housing starts falling short of estimates while industrial production and capacity utilization reflected optimism in the business sector. There are no major reports due from the US economy today so the focus could remain on developments in Washington regarding the intelligence leak to Russia.

EUR

The euro was able to cash in on mostly stronger than expected medium-tier data. The region's flash GDP reading came in line with expectations of 0.5% growth while Germany's ZEW economic sentiment showed a weaker than expected climb from 19.5 to 20.6 versus the consensus at 22.3. Euro zone trade balance and the region's ZEW index came in better than expected. The Italian trade balance and euro zone final CPI readings are lined up today.

GBP

The pound had a volatile run as it initially rallied on stronger than expected UK CPI then gave up ground when traders realized the repercussions on consumer spending. Headline CPI advanced from 2.3% to 2.7% while core CPI rose from 1.8% to 2.4% to suggest that purchasing power could weaken. Jobs data is due next and a drop in claimants is eyed, although the focus is likely on the average earnings index and whether or not wage growth could stay in pace with rising price levels.

CHF

The franc was the big winner for the day as it took the lion's share of risk-off flows from the dollar and the yen. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy and none are due today but the currency could continue to benefit if market uncertainties remain in play.

JPY

The yen was also able to squeeze out some gains to the dollar and its higher-yielding peers as US bond yields weakened. However, data from Japan has been far from impressive since the core machinery orders figure came in at 1.4% versus the projected 2.6% increase and the earlier 1.5% gain. Revised industrial production data is due next and no change to the preliminary 2.1% decline is expected.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls weakened to the euro, franc, and yen but managed to hold steady against the pound and the dollar. New Zealand quarterly PPI input and output prices turned out stronger than expected while the GDT auction yielded a 3.2% gain in dairy prices. API data revealed a buildup in inventories and the EIA data due today is expected to print a draw of 2.5 million barrels.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way