Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 04, 2016)

The ADP non-farm employment change report is up for release today and a 205K gain is eyed, slightly higher than the previous 200K increase. Due later on are the quarterly preliminary non-farm productivity and unit labor costs, as well as the US trade balance and ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

USD

The US dollar made a strong recovery in recent sessions, although there were no reports out of the US economy then. The ADP non-farm employment change report is up for release today and a 205K gain is eyed, slightly higher than the previous 200K increase. Due later on are the quarterly preliminary non-farm productivity and unit labor costs, as well as the US trade balance and ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

EUR

The euro returned some of its recent gains to the dollar but managed to hold on to its wins against the pound and commodity currencies. There were no major reports out of the region but the EU economic forecasts did contain a few upbeat notes. Final services PMI readings from the region's top economies are due today, along with the Spanish unemployment change report.

GBP

The pound lost a lot of ground in recent sessions as the UK manufacturing PMI fell from 50.7 to 49.2, reflecting industry contraction, instead of rising to the estimated 51.3 figure. The construction PMI is up for release today and a dip from 54.2 to 54.1 is eyed, although another weak result could spur more losses.

CHF

The franc returned some of its recent wins to the dollar and its other counterparts when the SECO consumer climate slipped from -14 to -15 instead of improving to -12. There are no major reports lined up from the Swiss economy today so the franc could take its cue from the euro.

JPY

Yen pairs made a quick pullback towards the end of the US session, although there were no clear catalysts for the sharp move. Japanese banks were closed on a holiday yesterday and are still closed today so market sentiment could push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls chalked up large losses to the dollar, particularly the Loonie which was dragged down by a 2% drop in oil prices. In New Zealand, the GDT auction showed a 1.4% drop in dairy prices. Their quarterly jobs report indicated a 1.2% gain in hiring for Q1 but the unemployment rate rose from 5.4% to 5.7% as the working-age population grew. There are no major reports due from the comdoll economies for the rest of the day.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way