Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 5, 2013)

US traders were off on a holiday celebrating the Fourth of July, which explains why there were no economic reports released from the US yesterday. For today, the US NFP report is due and a smaller increase in hiring is projected. Based on the results of the ADP report released earlier this week though, an upside surprise could be in the cards, which could continue to lift the dollar.

EUR

The euro suffered a heavy selloff in yesterday’s London and US sessions when ECB head Mario Draghi announced that interest rates would be kept low for an extended period of time. This triggered a sharp reaction from euro pairs, as the central bank opted to practice forward guidance in influencing longer-term interest rates. Only the German factory orders report is due today and it is expected to show a rebound of 1.3% from the previous 2.3% decline.

GBP

The pound was also under heavy selling pressure in the previous trading sessions when the BOE practiced forward guidance in saying that there will be no rate hike until mid-2015. This was a surprise, considering it was Mark Carney’s first statement as BOE head. There are no reports due from the UK today, which suggests that the pound could continue to sell off if there are no changes in market sentiment.

CHF

The franc was outpaced by the dollar but it managed to pack some gains against the euro. USD/CHF spiked to the .9580 area despite the lack of data from the US and Switzerland. Swiss foreign currency reserves data and CPI are due today. Higher foreign currency reserves could mean that the SNB is finding it more expensive to maintain its currency peg. Price levels are foreseen to drop by 0.1%, which could worsen the franc’s selloff.

JPY

The yen managed to gain against the pound and euro but it lost ground to the dollar, as USD/JPY spiked to the 100.40 area from 99.50. There were no reports released from Japan, but BOJ Governor Kuroda had a speech in which he said that their current easing efforts are starting to work out.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

Comdolls struggled to hold on to their current levels, with AUD/USD holding on to the .9100 handle and USD/CAD staying around the 1.0500 mark despite the jump in volatility. NZD/USD is still stuck in its recent range between .7700 and .7830. There are no major reports due from Australia and New Zealand but Canada is set to print its jobs data and Ivey PMI. Joblessness could drop by 4.2K in June while the Ivey PMI is projected to dip from 63.1 to 59.6.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way