Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 24, 2013)

Only the Richmond manufacturing index was released from the US and it showed a disappointing -11 reading instead of improving from 8 to 7. This revealed that there are still some inherent weaknesses in the US economy, which reminded traders that the Fed taper isn’t set in stone just yet. For today, new home sales and crude oil inventories are up for release. Remember that existing home sales came in weak earlier this week, which increases the chance for a downside surprise in new home sales.

EUR

The euro ended the day higher against the dollar again, despite the lack of data from the euro zone. Euro zone PMIs from Germany and France are up for release today and markets are expecting tiny improvements in the manufacturing and services sectors of both economies. Although most of the figures are projected to stay below 50.0 and indicate contraction, strong data could help lift the euro against its counterparts.

GBP

The pound managed to pocket some gains against the dollar yesterday, even though the BBA mortgage approvals report came in weak. The figure logged in a 37.3K increase, higher than the previous 36.3K reading but lower than the estimate at 38.5K. Still, an increase is an increase, and this was received positively by pound traders as it indicates that the government’s Funding for Lending Scheme is bearing fruit. CBI industrial orders expectations are due today and the figure is estimated to improve from -18 to -12, indicating that the decline was slower during the period.

CHF

No reports were released from Switzerland yet the franc continued its winning ways. Switzerland’s schedule is still empty for today, which suggests that USD/CHF and EUR/CHF could take their cues from US data and euro zone reports respectively.

JPY

The yen had a mixed performance as it remained sensitive to currency-specific data of its counterparts. The good news from Japan though is that the BOJ upgraded their growth forecasts for the third month in the row, revealing that the central bank believes their stimulus efforts are working out. The trade balance came in slightly below consensus as it printed a -0.6T JPY reading instead of the estimate at -0.58T JPY, but was still better than the previous -0.78T JPY figure.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Not even the drop in commodity prices was able to keep the comdolls from ending with wins, as AUD/USD reached the .9300 area while USD/CAD dipped to 1.0300. New Zealand’s trade balance came in much better than expected at 414M instead of the estimate at 5M, allowing NZD/USD to come close to .8000. Canadian retail sales also posted a strong upside surprise while Australian quarterly CPI came in as expected. Chinese flash manufacturing PMI from HSBC was weaker than estimated though, as it slipped from 48.2 to 47.7 instead of improving to 48.6.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way