Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 05, 2017)

Markets reopen today and the factory orders report is due, with analysts expecting to see a larger 0.4% decline compared to the earlier 0.2% dip. The FOMC minutes are also lined up and this should provide clues on when the Fed might hike rates next or start unwinding their balance sheet. 

EUR 

The euro was mostly weaker for the day after the Spanish unemployment change report fell short of estimates. Unemployment fell by 98.3K versus the projected reduction of 120.3K and the earlier 111.9K drop. Final services PMI and retail sales data are lined up today. 

GBP 

The pound was in a weak spot as the UK construction PMI also reflected a slowdown in industry growth just like the manufacturing sector. The reading fell from 56.0 to 54.8 versus the projected dip to 55.0. The services PMI is due today and this might have a more pronounced impact on sterling since the industry accounts for a larger chunk of overall growth. Analysts are expecting to see a drop from 53.8 to 53.6.

CHF

The franc edged slightly lower as there were no reports from the Swiss economy to keep it supported. There are still no major reports lined up today so franc price action could depend on market sentiment or on currency-specific events.

JPY

The yen was one of the weakest performers for the day as jitters over the North Korean missile test launch weighed on the Asian currency. The BOJ core CPI rose from 0.2% to 0.3% as expected. There are no reports due from Japan today but bond yields could continue to push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie extended its gains once more even as crude oil dipped and the Canadian manufacturing PMI indicated a slowdown in industry growth. Australia reported an improvement in its AIG services index from 51.5 to 54.8 while New Zealand yielded a 0.4% drop in dairy prices during the latest GDT auction. ANZ commodity prices posted a 2.1% gain, slower than the previous 2.1% rise.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way