Forex Major Currencies Outlook (January 22, 2014)

There have been no reports released from the US economy yesterday and there are still no reports lined up for today, which suggests that the Greenback could be sensitive to market sentiment and currency-specific data.

EUR

The euro formed a reversal pattern against the US dollar, indicating that the recent selloff might be over soon. Data from the euro zone came in mixed yesterday, with the German ZEW economic sentiment index coming short of expectations and dropping from 62.0 to 61.7 instead of improving to the estimated 63.4 reading. For the euro zone region though, the ZEW index climbed from 68.3 to 73.3, beating the 70.2 consensus. There are no reports lined up from the euro zone today though.

GBP

The pound retreated to the dollar in yesterday’s trading, as the CBI industrial order expectations came in very weak. Analysts were expecting a small dip from 12 to 10, but the index slipped all the way down to -2. Up ahead, we have the claimant count change release and the minutes of the latest BOE monetary policy meeting. Given the trend in jobs data recently, the UK might be in for weak figures. The figure is expected to show a 33.8K drop in unemployment while the minutes could show a unanimous decision in keeping policy unchanged. However, weaker than expected jobs data and a dovish BOE minutes might result to a pound selloff.

CHF

The franc continued to edge lower in yesterday’s trading as there were no economic reports to give the Swiss currency support. Today though, the Swiss ZEW economic expectations index is due and it could show an improvement from the 39.4 previous reading. If that’s the case, USD/CHF might retreat from its recent rallies.

JPY

The yen had a mixed performance in yesterday’s trading as it simply reacted to its counterparts’ data. For today though, the BOJ is set to make its monetary policy decision and possibly express its willingness to ease further if the sales tax hike hurts overall economic growth. If that happens, the yen might be in for more losses as the Nikkei index could close higher in anticipation of further easing.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Canadian dollar broke to the upside from its consolidation to the dollar, as Canadian data came in mixed. Although manufacturing sales beat expectations with a 1.0% increase, wholesale sales stayed flat instead of rising by 0.3%. Up ahead, we have the BOC rate decision and despite the recent round of weak data, Poloz has indicated that they are not ready to cut rates just yet. As for Australia, inflation data came in stronger than expected and boosted the Aussie, along with the slight improvement in Westpac consumer sentiment data.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way