Forex Major Currencies Outlook (December 20, 2013)

The existing home sales report showed a 4.90M reading instead of the estimated 5.04M figure and lower compared to the previous 5.12M. Meanwhile, the Philly Fed index improved from 6.5 to 7.0 but fell short of the estimated 10.3 reading. There are no major reports due from the US today as the only event lined up is Yellen’s confirmation vote.

EUR

The euro kept losing to the dollar in yesterday’s trading, despite better than expected data from the euro zone. The current account balance grew from a surplus of 14.9 billion EUR to 21.8 billion EUR, higher than the estimated 14.2 billion EUR surplus. For today, German PPI and German GfK consumer climate data are up for release. Producer prices are expected to stay flat while the consumer climate figure could hold steady at 7.4.

GBP

The pound was no match to dollar strength yesterday and it seems to have no firepower today, as the UK GfK consumer climate figure dipped from -12 to -13 instead of improving to the estimate -11 figure. UK retail sales came in line with the consensus of a 0.3% uptick but the previous month’s figure was revised down from -0.7% to -0.9%. UK current account, final GDP, and public sector net borrowing data are due today.

CHF

The franc was still in loser territory yesterday, as the recent FOMC decision to taper boosted USD/CHF up from the .8900 area. Swiss trade balance was also weaker than expected at 2.11 billion CHF versus the estimated 2.57 billion CHF surplus while the previous month’s figure was revised lower. There are no major reports due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen was stuck in consolidation against most of its counterparts in yesterday’s trading, as there were no reports released from the Japanese economy. Traders are also probably bracing themselves for today’s BOJ interest rate decision, although the central bank isn’t likely to make any monetary policy changes just yet. Still, be mindful of potential volatility during the event and during BOJ Governor Kuroda’s press conference.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls still caved to dollar strength in yesterday’s trading, even though there were no figures released from Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. For today, Canada is set to print its CPI and retail sales figures, which might mean volatility for USD/CAD. Core CPI is projected to post a 0.1% uptick while core retail sales could stay flat. Headline CPI could see a 0.2% increase while headline retail sales are expected to rise by 0.3%.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way