Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 4, 2015)

The ISM manufacturing PMI slid from 53.5 to 52.7 in July, reflecting a slower pace of expansion in the industry and showing a decline in the employment component. The core PCE price index held steady at 0.1% while personal spending and income also came in line with expectations. Today has the factory orders report on tap and a 1.8% rebound is eyed.

EUR

 The euro gave up ground to some of its counterparts, even though some of the euro zone PMI readings enjoyed slight upward revisions. The lack of progress in Greece’s third bailout appears to be weighing on the shared currency again, even though data has been stable. The Spanish unemployment change report is lined up today and it might show a 45.6K drop in joblessness, a slower pace of decline compared to the previous release.

GBP

The pound was able to extend its rallies, thanks to UK manufacturing PMI coming in better than expected. The figure climbed from 51.4 to 51.9, outpacing the consensus at 51.6 and reflecting a faster pace of growth in the industry. The construction PMI is up for release today and even though this doesn’t usually spur a strong reaction among pound pairs, another upside surprise could mean sustained gains for the pound. Analysts are expecting the reading to climb from 58.1 to 58.6.

CHF

The franc continued to sell off against the dollar and some of its other forex rivals, as Swiss data came in weaker than expected. The manufacturing PMI fell from 50.0 to 48.7, indicating industry contraction, instead of improving to the projected 50.6 figure. There are no reports lined up from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen advanced against most of its counterparts, as risk aversion kept the lower-yielding currency supported. There have been no major reports out of Japan, although the final manufacturing PMI for July was downgraded from 51.4 to 51.2. There are still no reports due from Japan today, which suggests that risk sentiment could play a role in price action.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls resumed their slide in recent trading sessions, weighed down again by weaker commodity prices and a fall in Markit’s Chinese manufacturing PMI. Earlier today, the Aussie got a boost from better than expected retail sales figures, which showed a 0.7% gain versus the projected 0.5% uptick and a positive revision in the previous report. Australia’s trade balance was also better than expected, although it marked a wider deficit compared to the previous month. The RBA is set to announce its monetary policy decision later on and no changes to the 2.00% rate is expected. New Zealand will have its global dairy trade auction and release its quarterly jobs data in the early Asian trading session tomorrow.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way