Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 16, 2015)

Headline consumer spending rose 1.3% instead of posting the projected 0.3% drop while core retail sales gained 0.8%. Preliminary UoM consumer sentiment advanced to 95.8 to indicate stronger optimism. Headline PPI posted a smaller than expected 0.2% uptick but core PPI printed the estimated 0.1% gain.  The Empire State manufacturing index is up for release from the US economy today and a drop from 9.6 to 7.2 is expected to show a slowdown in activity.

EUR

The euro retreated to the dollar but managed to advance against commodity currencies as risk aversion returned on Friday. Euro zone flash GDP came in at 0.5%, lower than the estimated 0.6% growth figure. German final CPI was also downgraded to show a larger 0.4% drop in price levels. European banks are closed for the holiday today.

GBP

The pound was also weaker against the dollar and yen but it was able to hold its ground against the comdolls. There were no reports out of the UK economy on Friday and none are due today so market sentiment and Brexit talks could move pound pairs.

CHF

The franc was mostly weaker against its peers, as the lack of Swiss data and the release of downbeat euro zone figures weighed on the currency. There are no reports due from Switzerland today since Swiss banks are closed for the holiday.

JPY

The yen took advantage of the run in risk aversion on Friday, especially since traders had been bracing themselves for downbeat Chinese data. However, data from Japan was also similarly weak, as reported a 26.4% year-over-year drop in preliminary machine tool orders and a sharper than expected 4.2% drop in producer prices.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were the weakest in the bunch as downbeat data brought risk aversion back to the table. Chinese figures missed expectations, as industrial production fell from 6.8% to 6.0% while retail sales slowed from 10.5% to 10.1%. Fixed asset investment was also weaker than expected. There are no major reports due from the comdoll economies for today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way