Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 11, 2017)

Fed official Rosengren reiterated his view that three more rate hikes seem reasonable this year and even though he's not a voting member, US markets and bond yields closed mostly higher on these remarks. US PPI and jobless claims are due next, providing a clue of how Friday's CPI reports might turn out.

EUR

The euro returned some of its recent wins even with mostly strong reports from the region. French industrial production rose 2% versus the estimated 1.2% increase while Italian industrial production ticked 0.4% higher. ECB head Draghi's remarks dampened the shared currency's gains as he remained cautious about confirming a pickup in inflation and signaling tapering down the line. The ECB Economic Bulletin and EU economic forecasts are due next.

GBP

Sterling remained one of the strongest performing currencies as traders are lining up their positions for the BOE Super Thursday. No actual policy changes are expected but many are expecting to hear optimistic remarks, especially since the latest batch of PMI readings have surprised to the upside. Any shift in bias could mean strong action for the pound as the minutes would also shed some light on how most policymakers are leaning.

CHF

The franc gave up some ground to most of its peers as there were no reports from Switzerland to give it a boost. Swiss CPI is due today and another 0.2% uptick is eyed, although a stronger than expected read could revive franc gains. 

JPY

The yen continued to give up ground as traders moved their safe-haven holdings to the dollar on rising US bond yields. At the same time, tensions in North Korea are keeping a lid on the Asian currency's rally. Bank lending came in at 3.0% in Japan, unchanged from the earlier reading instead of improving to the consensus at 3.2%. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls had a mixed performance as the Kiwi tanked after the RBNZ decision and a bit of jawboning. The Loonie raked in more gains as the EIA report showed a draw of 5.2 million barrels in stockpiles versus the projected reduction of 2 million barrels. Russia has also expressed willingness to join in the OPEC output deal if it is extended for another 6-9 months.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way