Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 6, 2015)

Data from the US was mostly weaker than expected, as the initial jobless claims showed a 320K reading versus the projected 293K figure, while factory orders marked a 0.2% slide. For today, the upcoming NFP release could be a strong catalyst for dollar price action, as this could indicate whether or not the Fed could afford to start tightening policy within the next few months. The economy could show a 241K increase in hiring for February, lower than the previous month’s 257K gain, but the jobless rate could improve from 5.7% to 5.6%.

EUR

The euro continued its slide to its forex rivals, as the ECB rate statement did little to support the shared currency. Although Draghi tried to maintain a hopeful tone and kept monetary policy unchanged, market participants focused on the risks to growth and financial stability. The ECB officially announced the beginning of QE on March 9, which might mean more losses for the euro starting then until the next 18 months. Only medium-tier reports such as trade balance and revised GDP readings are due from the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound got a bit of a boost from the BOE statement, although this event barely indicated policymakers’ biases. Traders are likely to wait for the BOE meeting minutes to be released before taking larger positions on pound pairs. For today, only the UK consumer inflation expectations report is up for release and a decline from the previous 2.5% reading is eyed.

CHF

The franc continued to fall against its major counterparts recently, even though there were no reports released from Switzerland. The start of the ECB’s QE program could mean more selling pressure on EURCHF, which means that traders are on their toes for any intervention moves by the SNB. The Swiss foreign currency reserves report is up for release today and traders would be interested to see if the central bank did intervene recently.

JPY

The Japanese yen once again advanced to its forex counterparts when risk taking weakened in recent trading. There have been no reports released from Japan then and none are due today, indicating that sentiment could continue to push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were in a weak spot in recent trading, as traders continued to weigh in on the recent rate cuts by central banks in emerging economies. Canada’s Ivey PMI came in slightly better than expected at 49.7 but still short of indicating industry expansion. Canadian building permits and trade balance figures are up for release later today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way