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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Mar 31, 2016)

USD

The US dollar got back on its feet recently, buoyed by stronger than expected ADP jobs data for March. 

According to the agency, the US economy added 200K versus the estimated 195K positions in March, setting the tone for a potential upside surprise in tomorrow's NFP. For today, initial jobless claims and the Chicago PMI are due. 

EUR

The euro retreated against the dollar but advanced against its other forex peers, thanks to stronger than expected data. The German preliminary CPI came in at 0.8% versus the estimated 0.6% increase and the previous 0.4% gain. For today, German retail sales, French consumer spending, and preliminary French and Spanish CPI data are due.  

GBP

The pound was in a weak spot against most of its forex counterparts since there were no reports to keep the currency supported yesterday. Today has the final GDP reading and current account balance on tap, along with a testimony by BOE Governor Carney. Dovish remarks could keep the currency's gains in check while reassuring comments could give it a boost. 

CHF

The franc weakened to the dollar but was able to hold on to its gains against its other rivals when data from Switzerland beat expectations. The KOF economic barometer dipped from 102.6 to 102.5, higher than the projected 101.9 figure. Meanwhile, the UBS consumption indicator improved from 1.45 to 1.53. 

JPY

The yen had a volatile run as it initially weakened against its counterparts but regained ground later on. Only the housing starts report is due today and a 2.2% decline is eyed. The results of the Tankan survey are up for release in the next Asian trading session. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to score some gains due to the rally in crude oil after the release of better than expected US inventories data. Stockpiles rose by only 2.4 million barrels versus the estimated gain of 3.1 million barrels. However, a survey also revealed that OPEC nations ramped up production by 100K barrels per day in March, keeping oversupply concerns in play. Canada's monthly GDP is due next and a 0.3% growth figure is eyed. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

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