Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 30, 2015)

The weekend gaps were mostly filled, as traders started to book profits ahead of event risks and a shortened trading week. Data from the US came in weaker than expected, as the pending home sales report printed a mere 0.9% gain instead of the projected 1.3% increase while the previous reading suffered a downgrade. Chicago PMI and US CB consumer confidence numbers are up for release today and strong data, combined with risk aversion, could pave the way for dollar rallies.

EUR

The euro staged a strong recovery against its forex counterparts after gapping down over the weekend. Investors are still hopeful that Greece can strike a deal with its creditors before the IMF deadline is up today. If the country fails to meet its 1.6 billion EUR in debt repayments, it could be forced to pay in arrears or possibly default on its debt. This could prompt talks of a Grexit and threaten the stability of the euro as a shared currency. Meanwhile, traders could also take a look at Germany’s retail sales and unemployment change figures, along with the euro zone CPI flash estimates, before the IMF deadline kicks in.

GBP

The pound was unable to recover against the safe-haven currencies in recent trading sessions, as data from the UK came in weak. Public lending to individuals was worse than expected at 3.1 billion GBP versus the projected 3.3 billion GBP figure while mortgage approvals came in at 64K, lower than the estimated 69K reading. The UK current account balance and final GDP reading for Q1 is up for release today and strong figures could allow the pound to regain ground.

CHF

The franc rallied against most of its forex counterparts towards the end of the US trading session, despite concerns that the SNB could intervene in the market to keep the currency weak. There have been no reports released from Switzerland then, with the franc taking its cue from the euro. For today, the KOF economic barometer is up for release and a climb from 93.1 to 93.7 is expected.

JPY

The yen took advantage of the run in risk aversion to rally against its forex rivals. Japanese retail sales came in stronger than expected with a 3.0% gain versus the projected 2.1% increase while the industrial production figure was downgraded to show a 2.2% decline. For today, the average cash earnings report turned out to be a disappointment with only a 0.6% gain instead of the projected 0.7% increase while the previous reading was downgraded.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were off to a weak start today, as data from Australia and New Zealand turned out weaker than expected. HIA new home sales slumped by 2.3% in Australia while the ANZ business confidence index in New Zealand fell from 15.7 to -2.3, reflecting pessimism. Weaker oil prices are currently weighing on the Loonie but the upcoming Canadian GDP release could provide fresh volatility in the US session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way