Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 16, 2013)

The headline figure posted a mere 0.4% uptick while the core version of the report showed a flat reading. This was lower than the estimated 0.7% increase in headline retail sales and the projected 0.5% growth in core retail sales. Apparently, US consumers cut back on purchases of gadgets and food while upping spending on automobiles and home furnishings. For today, the CPI figures are due and consumer price levels are expected to rise by 0.3% while core price levels could show another 0.2% increase.

EUR

EUR/USD was mostly stuck in consolidation for yesterday’s trading as there were no major reports released from the euro zone. German and euro zone ZEW figures are due today and small improvements are expected. German ZEW economic sentiment could climb from 38.5 to 39.8 while the region’s figure is slated to rise from 30.6 to 31.8, reflecting a rise in optimism.

GBP

The pound was off to a weak start in the Asian session but soon found support at the 1.5050 minor psychological level before rebounding back to the 1.5100 area. There were no economic reports released from the UK, as the country is set to print its CPI figures today. Annual inflation is set to climb from 2.7% to 3.0%, way above the central bank’s 2% inflation target. This should mean that the BOE would have less scope for monetary policy easing, which might be positive for the pound in the near term.

CHF

The Swiss PPI report fell below expectations as it showed a mere 0.1% uptick in producer price levels. However, the franc still managed to hold on to its recent gains against the dollar, as USD/CHF stayed around the .9500 handle. There are no major reports from Switzerland today, which suggests that USD/CHF action could be mostly dependent on US data.

JPY

Even though Japanese traders were on a holiday yesterday, the yen managed to score gains against the US dollar mostly during the New York session. There are no reports due from Japan again today, which suggests that the movement of yen pairs could be dependent on currency-specific data.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Australian dollar was bogged down by weaker than expected Chinese GDP in yesterday’s Asian session, as the country grew by only 7.5% for the second quarter. Meanwhile, quarterly inflation in New Zealand also disappointed, as the figure showed a mere 0.2% uptick instead of the estimated 0.3% rise. Canadian manufacturing sales are on tap for today and a 0.7% rebound is eyed to follow the 2.4% drop recorded previously.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way