Forex Major Currencies Outlook (February 6, 2014)

The ADP non-farm employment change figure showed a 175K increase, lower than the projected 191K figure, while the previous month’s figure suffered a downward revision. The good news though was that the ISM non-manufacturing PMI came in better than expected, as it climbed from 53.0 to 54.0. For today, the trade balance, initial jobless claims, and preliminary non-farm productivity and labor costs are up for release.

EUR

The euro chalked up small gains to the Greenback when euro zone data showed improvements. Spain’s services PMI ticked up from 54.2 to 54.9, but missed the consensus at 55.3. Italy’s services PMI improved from 47.9 to 49.4, indicating a slower pace of contraction. However, euro zone retail sales printed weaker than expected results, as the figure declined by 1.6%. Today’s big event for the euro is the ECB interest rate decision, which might spark volatility for euro pairs.

GBP

The pound struggled to hold on to its recent gains when the UK printed a weaker than expected services PMI. The figure fell from 58.8 to 58.3, indicating a slower pace of expansion in the industry. The BOE is set to make its interest rate decision today and no monetary policy changes are expected. However, any change in the rhetoric of the central bank might have a material impact on the pound’s movement.

CHF

The franc consolidated to the dollar in recent trading since there were no major reports released from Switzerland. The Swiss SECO consumer climate report is up for release today and an improvement from -5 to 0 is eyed. Swiss trade balance is also due today and a wider surplus is expected, which might be enough to give the franc a boost against its counterparts.

JPY

The yen gave up a bit of its gains as risk appetite improved in yesterday’s trading, contributing to a positive close for the Nikkei. There are no major reports lined up from Japan today so risk sentiment might be responsible for driving yen pairs around today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls took advantage of the recent bounce in risk appetite recently, with AUD/USD climbing above the .8900 handle. However, Canadian building permits printed weaker than expected results, as the figure showed a 4.1% decline instead of the estimated 2.3% increase. Earlier today, Australian retail sales printed a 0.5% uptick while NAB business confidence improved from 5 to 8. Later on, Canada will release its Ivey PMI and is expected to print a rise from 46.3 to 51.3 and show a return to expansion for the manufacturing industry.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way