Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 2, 2013)

The ISM figure improved from 50.9 to 55.4, its fastest climb since June 1996. The initial jobless claims report showed a 326K reading, lower than the estimate at 346K. For today, the NFP is up for release and could cause a lot of volatility among dollar pairs. A 186K figure is expected, slightly lower than the previous 195K reading but still enough to push the jobless rate down from 7.6% to 7.5%. 

EUR

The euro slid lower against the dollar but managed to score some gains against the Japanese yen. The ECB statement turned out as markets expected, with no actual changes to monetary policy but Draghi highlighted some of the improvements in the euro zone economy. Only the Spanish jobs report is up for release from the euro zone today and it is expected to show that the economy added 80K jobs for the month. A higher than expected increase in hiring could lift the euro during the London session. 

GBP

The pound weakened to the dollar but strengthened against the yen, as the BOE interest rate decision contained no surprises. BOE Governor Carney kept rates unchanged, as expected. Meanwhile the UK manufacturing PMI printed a strong result of 54.6, higher than the estimate at 52.8. Construction PMI is due from the UK today and it’s expected to rise from 51.0 to 51.6.

CHF

There were no reports from Switzerland as the country was on a holiday. With that, the franc fell victim to dollar strength, pushing USD/CHF out of its downtrend on the shorter-term time frame. For today, the SVME PMI is up for release and it’s expected to improve from 51.9 to 53.1, which could lift the franc against its counterparts. 

JPY

The yen was no match to the strength of other major currencies as there were no major reports released from Japan yesterday. The calendar is still empty for today, which suggests that we could see more or less the same behavior from the yen, unless there’s a huge shift in market sentiment. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls struggled to stay resilient against the dollar in yesterday’s trading as upbeat Chinese official manufacturing PMI data helped lift the Australian dollar. For today, the NFP report could be one of the biggest movers for the comdoll gang. Australian PPI came in weaker than expected at 0.1% instead of the estimate at 0.5%, which suggests the RBA does have room to ease if needed.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way