Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 29, 2013)

The tension in Syria is still playing a role in risk sentiment and the possibility of a military strike is keeping traders from stocking up on higher yielding currencies. However, crude oil inventories were better than expected and showed that an oil supply shock hasn’t taken place yet. For today, the US revised GDP is due and an upward revision from 1.7% to 2.2% is expected.

EUR

German data has been mostly supporting the euro in the past few trading days, as data from periphery nations has turned out weaker than expected. However, yesterday’s release of German consumer climate data turned out to be a disappointment also, as the actual figure dipped from 7.0 to 6.9 instead of improving to 7.1. German jobs figures are up for release today and an increase of 5K in hiring is projected.

GBP

The pound sold off initially when risk aversion was still dominating price action but it rebounded when Governor Carney spoke and mentioned his positive outlook for the UK economy. There are no reports due from the UK today, which suggests that GBP/USD could move to the tune of US data or risk sentiment.

CHF

The franc lost ground to both the euro and the dollar yesterday, as risk aversion kept its head in the markets. For today, Swiss employment level is up for release and it’s expected to show a drop from 4.15M to 4.14M, which might be negative for the franc. Although strong figures could still provide support for the Swiss currency, overall risk sentiment could still favor lower-yielding currencies.

JPY

The yen still packed some gains against most of its counterparts as risk aversion from the potential military strike in Syria still kept lower-yielders on top. There are no reports due from Japan recently as a round of Japanese data are due on Friday, which might lead to more volatility and direction among yen pairs.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Comdolls were able to recover slightly in earlier trading sessions but ended up mostly returning their gains to the dollar. The rise in gold and oil prices is having less of an effect on correlated currencies, as risk aversion is still a bigger theme in the markets. Only medium tier reports are due from Canada for the US session while New Zealand’s ANZ business confidence report churned out a weak result and reflected business pessimism.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way